In this analysis, I shall be blunt and analyze the patterns violence have taken place over the years in Nigeria and you would believe at the end of this write-ups that most violence in Nigeria are politically induced.
There my be genuine reason(s) for hostilities and violence, most times political actors usually hijack them and amplify them for selfish gains.
I would be analyzing it this way;
1. OBASANJO ERA (1999-2007)
A. South West
While the crises between Modakeke and Ife was a source of worry, June 12 strugglers felt Obasanjo was a northern candidate sent to suppress the June 12 struggle. O’dua People’s Congress (OPC) the militia wing of June 12 struggle became more fierce. Obasanjo government tried to use state power to suppress them.
B. South East.
Anti Obasanjo elements hijacked Biafran sentiments, Obasanjo defeated Alex Ekweme at PDP primaries in Jos, it was Obasanjo that ended the civil war at Owerri and Ulli. These two sentiments would fertilize Biafran struggle in the form of MASSOB which led to numerous violent outings against state force.
C. South South
Uprising and awareness for resources control was gaining momentum, but it took a higher dimension when Obasanjo went after a financier and supporter of his great opponent; Atiku in Bayelsa. The governor general of Ijaw nation was caged abroad. Resource control agitation became investment zone for anti Obj elements, they hijacked the struggle and full fledged militancy became a byproduct of a genuine course.
D. The North.
The only crises that gave this era sleepless nights in the north was religious riots, with Kaduna usually the launchpad. Mosques and Churches destroyed.
Yes there may be fault lines between these two religions, but political actors usually hijack them.
Whenever Obasanjo made a move that was not in the interest of the north, it was just a matter of days or weeks, flames would go up in Kaduna, Kano, Bauchi, Jos etc.
The riots then, was a string used to is send “message” to Obasanjo.
Have you noticed that rising to burn religious place of worship has not been rampart like it use to be during this era? This is because, it is no longer fashionable or fits into the mobilizations mechanism of political instigators. Boko Haram crises has altered that sentiments.
2. YAR’DUA ERA (2007-2010)
When he took over power in 2007, he had a major crisis in the South South, he started the amnesty program for militants.
While the program was gaining ground in South South, the political interests that negatively invested in the resources control struggle, seeing that they were losing ground, turned to the north to hijack Boko Haram following the death of its founder that was killed by forces of the state.
The sentiments of the death of it founder, generated so much momentum among the followers and those political elements that opposed Yar’dua’s government invested in it massively.
3. GOODLUCK (2010 – 2015)
His greatest opposition came from the north. Boko Haram was a tool political interests used to intimidate him. He inherited it from Yar’dua’ government. Those who opposed his ascendancy to presidency also became sympathetic to Boko Haram.
Some commentators believe that at some points, political interests from the south invested in factions of Boko Haram to further devastate or polarize the north.
Every interests that opposed Goodluck had Boko Haram to invest in.
4. BUHARI (2015 – date)
When he took over power, he had a faction of Boko Haram to contend with in the North. Political interests opposed to his government had assembled AVENGERS in the South South, Biafran agitation was hijacked and Nnamdi Kanu’ IPOB became an investment zone in South East.
He has caged Boka Haram and restricted them to the North East, he tried to neutralize AVENGERS and his Pythons had swallowed restive Nnamdi Kanu and his IPOB.
Definitely, those elements opposed to his government would look for where to invest in.
The reason for the recent scarcity of fuel can not be trace without seeing the factor of these men in it. They are everywhere.
There may have been genuine hostilities between farmers and herdsmen, that has led to deaths of many.
These fault lines between farmers and herdsmen is a fertile ground to invest in by those who are specialists in crumbling the government of any man.
I am not exonerating herdsmen, neither am I exonerating President Muhammadu Buhari’s below average approach in addressing the crises.
What I am saying is that herdsmen attack is real, herdsmen clashes with farmers is real, but political interests hijacking it to make selfish political gains to embarrass a sitting government is could be more real.
I once wrote an article; FULANI HERDSMEN VS POLITICAL HERDSMEN, the Fulani herdsmen are the ones that the locals know and usually blame whenever there is an invasion.
The political herdsmen are those induced to go and kill, to rubbish a sitting government.
If I call cult groups, armed robbery gangs or thugs and pay them to go a village in Benue to kill people tonight, tomorrow morning, the world would say “Fulani herdsmen did it”.
While we weep and mourn out dead, I still strongly urge us that our killers may not be who we thought they are. Our killers could have been those who claim to be crying with us today.
As 2019 comes nearer every second, let us watch out, political interests can do anything for power, including trading with your blood to rubbish their opponents.
May God heal Nigeria.
…Enenche Enenche (Comedian)